荷兰合作银行：中国将在下半年至2016年增加猪肉进口

　　Last week Rabobank, the world’s largest Ag-Bank released their 3rd quarter perspective on Global Pork Markets.

　　上周全球最大的农业银行荷兰合作银行发布了第三季度全球猪肉市场报告。

　　“The enormous cull” of China’s hog herd over the last 18 months is pressuring production, causing China to expand imports into 2016.

　　中国猪群在过去18个月的“大量淘汰”压缩了产量，导致中国在2016年要增加进口量。

　　Rabobank animal protein analyst Albert Vernooji says, “The main questions are when Chinese Import growth will start, how much volume growth there will be and what the support for pork prices will be across the globe.”

　　荷兰合作银行动物蛋白分析师Albert Vernooji说：“主要的问题是中国将在何时开始出现进口增长，多大的增长会对全球的猪肉价格起到支撑作用。”

　　Rabobank also says:

　　荷兰合作银行同时认为：

　　China’s imports will expand second half of 2015 and into 2016.

　　中国将在下半年至2016年增加进口。

　　In the US, the question is if Q2’s margin recovery will continue, as the strong supply rebound will likely be partially absorbed by expected growth in exports to China.

　　由于强大的供应反弹将有可能被对中国出口的预期增长部分吸收，美国的问题是第2季度的利润是否会继续得到改善。

　　The EU market has ample opportunities for price and margin improvement.

　　欧盟市场有机会得到价格和利润的改善。

　　Continuing disease outbreaks in Mexico and South Korea support high prices and strong import demands.

　　墨西哥和韩国的持续疫情推动了高价格和强劲的进口需求。

　　China

　　中国

　　We agree with Rabobank about China’s import potential here and now.

　　我们同意荷兰合作银行对目前中国进口潜力的认可。

　　Three Key Numbers:

　　三个关键数字：

　　China market hog inventory is 57 million lower than 2 years ago – down 2 million head a week.

　　中国商品猪存栏比2年前减少5700万头，每周减少200 万头。

　　China sow inventory is down 10.3 million from two years ago.

　　中国母猪存栏比2年前下降了1030万头。

　　China market hog price is now $1.25 US live weight a pound. Mid-April it was 85? a pound US. That is a price increase of $100 per head.

　　中国现在的生猪价格为1.25美元/磅活重。4月中旬为85美分/磅。每头猪的价格上涨了100美元。

　　Less hogs, less sows, and the most important part, hog prices that have rocketed higher reflecting decreased supply and solid demand. The spread between China and the US live weight price is about 70? or $175 per head!!! We are betting that this very moment this price spread is leading to loading of containers of pork to be shipped now. Capitalism will push pork to China.

　　生猪减少、母猪减少，最重要的是，生猪价格的飞涨反映了供应量的下降和强劲的需求。中国与美国活猪价格的差价约为70美分，即每头175美元!我们打赌，此时此刻的这个差价正在带来猪肉集装箱的装运。资本主义将把猪肉推向中国。

　　China owned Smithfield Foods will lead the way. If they could move 100,000 carcass equivalent a week and gain $100 per head margin that is $10 million a week. Bet that China will keep American supply open!

　　中国老板的史密斯菲尔德食品会带路。如果他们每周运送相当于10万头胴体的产品，每头获利100美元，一周就是1000万美元。中国肯定会让美国保持供应开放!

　　Country of Origin Labelling

　　原产国标签制度

　　Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) last Thursday offered an amendment to a highway-funding bill to repeal country of origin labelling requirements for beef, pork, and poultry and stave off trade retaliation from Canada and Mexico. A move hailed by NPPC – National Pork Producers Council.

　　美国参议院农业主席帕特 · 罗伯茨(Pat Roberts，堪萨斯共和党) 上周四提出公路基金法案的修订案来废除牛肉、 猪肉和家禽的原产国标签制度，并缓和了加拿大和墨西哥的贸易报复。全国猪肉生产者理事会(NPPC)所欢迎的一项举措。

　　According to Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes, the average US pork producer is expected to lose $10 per head beginning later this year and into next year, and based on these estimates retaliation from Canada and Mexico against US pork will likely double pork producer losses.

　　艾奥瓦州立大学经济学家德莫特 · 海耶斯(Dermot Hayes)预计美国猪肉生产商在今年晚些时候直到明年平均将损失10美元。在这基础上，估计来自加拿大和墨西哥对美国猪肉的报复将有可能给猪肉生产者带来双倍损失。

　　Let’s hope the US senate supports Senator Robert’s amendment and business can get getting on.

　　让我们祝愿美国参议院支持罗伯茨参议员的修正案，这样行业可以得到发展。